Sudan Situation Analysis: Conflict Developments and their Implications for Aid Agencies

 

Sudan Situation Report Analysis Conflict Developments and their Implications for Aid Agencies July 2023 The Jeddah Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan had a limited focus on humanitarian issues, while subsequent ceasefires had practically no effect on the fighting. Any spillover effects of the Sudanese conflict on neighbouring countries may affect aid operations regionally. Attempts to influence the conflict through sanctions are highly likely to affect aid operations. Summary Fighting will remain largely within urban areas, despite a likely increase in the ongoing conflict, with Khartoum, West, South and North Darfur, the Kordofan states and parts of Blue Nile seeing the heaviest fighting. Neither side is likely to gain a significant advantage in the next six months. Tribal and ethno-religious loyalties are already fuelling recruitment and support for both sides and this is only likely to increase if – as seems likely – the conflict continues. This in turn risks sparking a more general tribal/ethnic conflict, particularly in Darfur, with complex implications for aid agency recruitment and collaboration with local partners. The conflict could see spillover effects on neighbouring countries such as Ethiopia, Chad and South Sudan, with the influx of refugees escaping violence in Sudan likely adding additional pressures on their resources and stability. The situation in Libya poses further risks, because the country serves as an optimal rear base for the combtants in Sudan, due to its role as a black-market logistics hub, while South Sudan could see economic repercussions, particularly if the RSF targets the country’s oil infrastructure. Read more Help support our work by sharing this resource. Please copy and paste this link: bit.ly/SUDConflictDevsJul2023 Related context Crisis, Conflict and Food Insecurity report on how the conflict in Sudan impacts food security and recommendations for stakeholders. Social Media Monitoring report on Sudan’s Doctors Falsely Accused of Siding with the RSF. Safeguarding Health in Conflict Coalition (SHCC) factsheet on violence against health care in Sudan in 2022. Available in Arabic and English. Attacks on Health Care Bi Monthly News Briefs on global incidents of threats and violence affecting health care. Subscribe

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