Global Security Alert: President Bola Tinubu Implements State of Emergency in Nigeria Due to Food Crisis

President Bola Tinubu Implements State of Emergency in Nigeria Due to Food Crisis

Event and Context Details:

President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria has declared a state of emergency in response to increasing food prices and shortages. This is a significant step to mitigate the prevailing crisis, primarily brought about by violent criminal gangs, compelling numerous farmers, particularly from the country's northern region, to cease their cultivation activities.

President Tinubu's administration is initiating a series of actions to address these issues, including the allocation of funds gained from the recent elimination of a fuel subsidy towards providing fertilizers and grain to farmers. Security provisions are also set to be strengthened to safeguard farmers who have been repeatedly targeted and displaced by ransom-seeking gangs. Additionally, economically challenged households will receive monthly financial assistance.

Despite the ensuing controversy and consequential economic impact brought about by the fuel subsidy's removal, President Tinubu maintains that such steps are vital for ensuring efficient resource utilization. However, the fallout has caused significant economic upheaval, leading to substantial price hikes in staple goods such as bread, thus exacerbating the food crisis.

In a bid to provide relief, the government plans to distribute a monthly stipend to 12 million households through the National Safety Net Programme. This initiative is separate from a similar scheme previously launched by the past administration. [source: Yahoo News via BBC]

Risk Assessment:

• Food Insecurity: With the prevailing food crisis, there is a high risk of increased food insecurity among the population, leading to potential malnutrition and other health issues.
  
• Economic Impact: The removal of the fuel subsidy has led to considerable price increases, affecting not only food but also other essential goods and services, potentially causing socio-economic instability.
  
• Security Risk: The criminal activity targeting farmers presents a significant risk to personal security and could deter farmers from returning to their lands even with increased protection measures.
  
• Political Instability: Public dissatisfaction with the government's decisions, particularly the removal of the fuel subsidy, could lead to unrest and potential political instability.
  

Risk ratings for the identified issues based on a scale of 1 (lowest risk) to 5 (highest risk):

• Food Insecurity: Likelihood - 5, Impact - 5. (Justification: Given the current food crisis, the likelihood and impact of increased food insecurity is very high.)
  
• Economic Impact: Likelihood - 5, Impact - 4. (Justification: The removal of the fuel subsidy has already led to price increases, so the likelihood is high. The impact is also significant but perhaps not as immediately life-threatening as food insecurity.)
  
• Security Risk: Likelihood - 4, Impact - 5. (Justification: The threat from criminal gangs is ongoing, making the likelihood high. The impact is extremely high due to the potential for loss of life and the fear that prevents farmers from working their land.)
  
• Political Instability: Likelihood - 3, Impact - 4. (Justification: There could be a medium to high chance of political instability due to public dissatisfaction, with a high impact on the overall governance and social order of the country.)
  

Mitigation Measures:

• Economic Aid and Social Safety Nets: Continue to provide financial support to affected households, both directly through cash transfers and indirectly through subsidies on food and other essentials.
  
• Strengthening Security Measures: Increase security presence and protections in farming regions to safeguard against criminal gangs and encourage farmers to resume cultivation.
  
• Support for Farmers: Continue providing necessary support to farmers, such as subsidized fertilizers and grains, to encourage a return to farming and increase local food production.
  
• Transparent and Regular Communication: Maintain regular and transparent communication with the public about the measures being taken to address the crisis, which can help reduce public dissatisfaction and potential unrest.
  
• International Assistance: If necessary, seek assistance from international partners and organizations to provide additional food aid and technical support to address food insecurity.
  
• Infrastructure and Alternative Energy Sources: Address the energy crisis caused by the fuel subsidy removal by investing in alternative energy sources and improving existing energy infrastructure.
  
• Monitoring and Evaluation: Regularly evaluate the effectiveness of the implemented measures and adjust as necessary. Keep track of the food security situation and make real-time decisions based on the findings.