Global Security Alert: Somalia 7/20/23

 

Al-Shabaab's Escalating Terror Attacks in Somalia: Risk Assessment and Mitigation Strategies

Photo Source: World Meters

Event Summary:

In a series of escalating terror attacks aimed at civilians, security forces, and government officials in Somalia, suspected members of the Al-Shabaab militant group assassinated a former senior official on Wednesday. The victim, Faqay Abdulle Mayow, previously served as the deputy commissioner of administration and finance in Awdhegle District, within the Lower Shabelle region. He was ambushed and fatally shot by unidentified gunmen in the Hamarjab district, who subsequently disappeared without a trace.

This incident follows the recent assassination of Abdi Ahmed Yusuf, the former

deputy governor of security and politics in the Lower Shabelle region. Yusuf was the target of a suicide bombing that occurred near Somalia's Ministry of Defense Headquarters in Mogadishu, resulting in several additional casualties among soldiers and guards.

The government of Somalia, with the support of international partners, has been actively cracking down on Al-Shabaab and is expected to launch the second phase of operations against the group in the upcoming weeks. These operations will primarily focus on the Jubaland and Southwest states, following the first phase that targeted the Galmadug and HirShabelle states. Despite these actions, Al-Shabaab continues to target officials for suicide bombings, causing numerous fatalities.

Risk Assessment:

1. Likelihood: The probability of future attacks is quite high (5/5). The repeated and consistent attacks indicate a high level of planning and intent, and a marked ability of the Al-Shabaab to carry out these plans.
2. Impact: The impact of these attacks is very severe (5/5). It includes loss of life, destabilization of government functioning, and increased fear and instability in the country.
   

Justification: Al-Shabaab has a long history of targeted assassinations and bombings, showing its capability to carry out such attacks. The recent increase in frequency of these attacks indicates that Al-Shabaab's threat level has not diminished.

Mitigation Measures:

• Enhance Security Protocols: For NGOs and non-profit organizations, it's crucial to enhance security measures, especially for field staff. This could include providing security training, establishing safe travel protocols, and improving office security.
  
• Collaborate and Coordinate: Engage in regular coordination and collaboration with other organizations, security forces, and local authorities. Sharing information can help to anticipate risks and prepare necessary measures.
  
• Establish Evacuation and Emergency Plans: Develop and rehearse evacuation and other emergency procedures. This should include plans for communication during crises, medical emergencies, and situations requiring evacuation.
  
• Personal Safety Measures: Staff should maintain a low profile, avoiding unnecessary attention. They should be aware of their surroundings, avoid traveling after dark, and avoid known high-risk locations.
  
• Regular Risk Assessments: Conduct regular security and risk assessments to keep track of the changing security environment. Use this information to update mitigation measures as necessary.
  
• Psychological Support: Provide resources for psychological support for staff. The constant high-stress environment can take a toll on mental health, and it's important to ensure staff have access to appropriate support.

Source: Garowe Online