Security Alert: Rising Insurgency Threat and Impending Humanitarian Crisis in Burkina Faso

High-Risk Security Alert: Rising Insurgency Threat and Impending Humanitarian Crisis in Burkina Faso

Source: AFP & VOA News

Photo source: VOA News

July 19, 2023

Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Event & Contextual Details:

In Burkina Faso, the incumbent junta leader has decried the "cowardly" actions of jihadist insurgents following two attacks that left at least ten civilians dead. Kossi province's local capital, Nouna, was shelled late Monday, leading to six fatalities and four injuries. This town has become a haven for thousands fleeing repeated jihadist attacks in recent times. The same night, the village of Tondoura, situated roughly 400 kilometers to the south and close to the Ivory Coast border, was also assaulted. The locals, despite being armed, were swiftly overwhelmed. At least four people were killed, several injured, and multiple physical damages were reported. Over the past month, residents have had to find shelter from presumed jihadists in the neighboring towns of Niangoloko and Banfora. The junta leader, Captain Ibrahim Traore, who came into power via a coup last year, blamed the "imperialists" for imposing the war and accused the International Monetary Fund's structural adjustment program from the 1990s of debilitating their armies. The ruling military junta is struggling against a jihadist uprising that originated from Mali in 2015, resulting in more than 10,000 deaths and displacing at least 2 million people.

Risk Assessment 

• Risk of Further Attacks:
• Likelihood: High (5/5) - Given the frequency of previous attacks and the ongoing insurgency, there is a high probability for more attacks in the future.
• Impact: High (5/5) - Further attacks would result in additional loss of life, displacement, and potential escalations in civil unrest.
• Risk of Civil Unrest:
• Likelihood: Medium-High (4/5) - The dissatisfaction among the public regarding the handling of the crisis may lead to civil unrest if the situation continues to worsen.
• Impact: High (4/5) - Civil unrest could further destabilize the region, complicate security responses, and lead to a potentially larger humanitarian crisis.
• Risk of Humanitarian Crisis:
• Likelihood: High (5/5) - The increase in displaced people and the constant threat of violence make the risk of a humanitarian crisis almost certain.
• Impact: High (5/5) - A humanitarian crisis would pose significant challenges to both the local population and the international community, straining resources and exacerbating an already difficult situation.
• Political Instability:
• Likelihood: High (4/5) - The inability of the junta to effectively combat the insurgency and the blaming of "imperialists" could increase the likelihood of further political instability.
• Impact: High (4/5) - Political instability could disrupt attempts to address the crisis, and potentially make the country more vulnerable to future coups or transitions of power.

These ratings are subjective and are based on the currently available information. They may change as the situation evolves or as more information becomes available.

Mitigation Measures:

• Security Measures: NGOs and nonprofits operating in the area should collaborate with local authorities and international organizations to enhance security measures.
  
• Evacuation Plans: Develop clear evacuation and emergency plans for staff and the communities they serve, considering the risk of sudden attacks.
  
• Humanitarian Aid: Coordinate with other international organizations and local partners to provide humanitarian aid to displaced persons, such as food, shelter, healthcare, and other essential services.
  
• Advocacy: Advocate for peace and reconciliation, engaging various stakeholders at local, national, and international levels to address the root causes of the conflict and promote dialogue.
  
• Preparedness Training: Provide staff with appropriate safety and security training and ensure they are aware of the local context and potential threats. Ensure they know how to respond appropriately in emergency situations.
  
• Remote Operations: If the situation becomes too dangerous, consider the possibility of remote operations, providing support to local partners from a safer location.
  
• Communication: Keep an open line of communication with other organizations, local communities, and authorities. Regular updates about the situation can help anticipate threats and allow for more timely responses.