Global Security Alert: Sweden & Iraq

Qur'an Desecration Incidents in Sweden Evoke International Outrage: Comprehensive Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures

Event Overview:

In Sweden, controversial events have sparked widespread outrage, both domestically and internationally, following multiple instances of desecration of the Qur'an. Firstly, an individual publicly desecrated and burned the holy Islamic text outside Stockholm's central mosque, a move which could potentially endanger Sweden's NATO membership bid, given the objections raised by Turkey, a NATO member state. This incident was followed by an unsuccessful attempt to burn the Qur'an outside the Iraqi embassy in Stockholm, which resulted in a retaliatory attack on the Swedish embassy in Baghdad, Iraq. These incidents have caused a diplomatic uproar and have raised questions about the implementation of freedom of speech in Sweden and its potential to endanger the country's security. [source: Reuters]

Risk Assessment:

• Risk: Social Unrest and Intercommunal Violence
  Likelihood: 5/5, Impact: 5/5, Risk Rating: 25/25
  Justification: The continuous desecration of the Qur'an, a significant religious symbol for Muslims worldwide, has and could further instigate intercommunal violence and social unrest. These acts of desecration have already resulted in protests and violence, as witnessed in Iraq. With rising tensions, further violence is highly likely.
  
• Risk: Damage to International Relations and Diplomatic Ties
  Likelihood: 5/5, Impact: 5/5, Risk Rating: 25/25
  Justification: The incidents have strained Sweden's diplomatic relations, especially with Turkey and Iraq. Sweden's NATO membership bid is at stake, with Turkey expressing its discontent. The Iraqi government has expelled the Swedish ambassador and suspended the working permit of Sweden's Ericsson in response.
  
• Risk: Decreased Security and Potential for Terrorism
  Likelihood: 4/5, Impact: 5/5, Risk Rating: 20/25
  Justification: Given the international outrage and the possibility of radicalization, these incidents could potentially inspire extremist activities and terrorist attacks.
  

Mitigation Measures:

• Interfaith Dialogue: Encourage dialogue between different religious communities within Sweden and externally to promote understanding and reconciliation.
  
• Review of Freedom of Speech Laws: The Swedish government should expedite its review of the freedom of speech laws to allow police to prevent public actions that may endanger Sweden's security.
  
• Stronger Police Presence: Increase security at potential hotspots for these protests, including mosques and embassies, to prevent violence and maintain public order.
  
• Diplomatic Efforts: Engage in diplomatic efforts to repair relations with aggrieved countries and allies, expressing the commitment to mitigate such incidents.
  

Global Implications:

These events underscore the potential dangers of unchecked freedom of speech, particularly in an increasingly interconnected world. While upholding freedom of speech is vital, it is important for nations to understand that certain actions may be interpreted as offensive or provocative by different cultural or religious groups, leading to unforeseen negative consequences, both domestically and internationally.

The situation also emphasizes the delicate nature of international relations, where one event may have ripple effects across countries, affecting political alliances and causing civil unrest. The incidents highlight the significance of cultural sensitivity and mutual respect in maintaining peaceful international relations. Furthermore, they underline the pivotal role of governments in effectively managing internal affairs to prevent any adverse impact on their international standing and relations.

Methodology

In this report, the risk rating scores were determined using a common risk assessment technique known as a "risk matrix." This method quantifies risk based on two key factors: likelihood and impact. Each factor is scored on a scale, and the total risk rating is determined by multiplying the two.

Likelihood: This measures the probability of the risk event occurring within a specified time period. It is often evaluated on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 signifies a rare or unlikely event and 5 represents an event that is almost certain to occur.

Impact: This measures the severity or consequences of the risk event if it occurs. This is also often measured on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 signifying minor impact (minimal disruption or damage) and 5 representing extreme impact (severe disruption, damage, or catastrophic outcomes).

Risk Rating: This is calculated by multiplying the scores of likelihood and impact. 

In this 5x5 matrix, the risk rating could range from 1 (low risk: unlikely and with minimal impact) to 25 (high risk: almost certain and with catastrophic impact).

In the report, social unrest and intercommunal violence were given a likelihood and impact score of 5 each, resulting in a risk rating of 25. This suggests that if no mitigation measures are put in place, social unrest and violence are almost certain to occur, and when they do, the impact will be severe.

Damage to international relations was also given a maximum risk rating of 25, indicating that it's almost certain to happen and the impact will be severe.

The decreased security and potential for terrorism was rated slightly lower at 20, suggesting that while the likelihood and impact are high, they are slightly less certain or potentially damaging compared to the other two risks.

These risk scores are essentially informed estimates and should be revisited and revised as new information becomes available or as circumstances change. They help prioritize risks and inform decision-making for risk mitigation strategies.