Increasing Security Threats in Northern Togo

Risk Assessment and Mitigation Strategies for Increasing Security Threats in Northern Togo

Event Summary:

A new attack in Northern Togo claimed the lives of at least twelve soldiers on July 17, 2023. The assault took place in the village of Sankortchagou, near the border with Burkina Faso, while the Defense and Security Forces (FDS) were on patrol. A number of soldiers, whose exact count remains unspecified, were critically injured and evacuated to the regional hospital center in Dapaong.

This assault is the latest in a series of violent incidents attributed to the jihadist group, Support Group for Islam and Muslims (GSIM), a subsidiary of Al-Qaeda in the Sahel. This group has publicly acknowledged orchestrating ten of the fourteen attacks that have occurred in Togo this year, with the remaining four unclaimed and their perpetrators unidentified.

The current geopolitical situation, combined with local dynamics, raises multiple concerns, necessitating a comprehensive risk assessment and the development of appropriate mitigation strategies. 

(sources: Crisis24 | Globe Echo World News)

Risk Assessment:

• Risk Event: Continuation of attacks by GSIM and other unidentified actors.
  Risk Rating: High
  Risk Score: 5x4 = 20 (Likelihood: 5 - Highly Likely, Impact: 4 - Major)
  Justification: The GSIM has claimed responsibility for ten out of fourteen attacks carried out in Togo in the recent past, indicating a high likelihood of further attacks.
  
• Risk Event: Escalation of tensions due to the arrest of Fulani herders.
  Risk Rating: Medium
  Risk Score: 4x3 = 12 (Likelihood: 4 - Likely, Impact: 3 - Moderate)
  Justification: The recent attack could be linked to increased tensions due to the closure of transhumance corridors between Togo and Burkina Faso, and the arrests of Fulani herders.
  
• Risk Event: Displacement of populations and strain on resources.
  Risk Rating: Medium
  Risk Score: 4x3 = 12 (Likelihood: 4 - Likely, Impact: 3 - Moderate)
  Justification: The escalating violence and insecurity could lead to displacement of populations, placing a significant strain on resources in Togo and neighboring regions.
  

Mitigation Measures:

• Improve intelligence gathering and sharing: Enhance intelligence capabilities to predict and preempt potential attacks. Strengthen collaboration with international partners for sharing intelligence.
  
• Foster dialogue with Fulani community: Proactively engage with the Fulani community to de-escalate tensions, address grievances and prevent radicalization.
  
• Strengthen border security: Increase surveillance and security at the border with Burkina Faso to prevent infiltration by armed groups.
  
• Enhance military and security response: Train and equip security forces to effectively respond to attacks.
  
• Invest in community resilience: Increase investment in local development programs to address underlying vulnerabilities and enhance community resilience.
  

Global and Geopolitical Implications:

The ongoing crisis in Togo could intensify regional instability in West Africa and the broader Sahel region. The heightened violence and insecurity could lead to large-scale displacement, exerting pressure on neighboring countries and potentially fueling a broader humanitarian crisis.

On a global scale, the crisis in Togo contributes to global inequality and poses significant challenges to the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals. From a geopolitical perspective, the escalating conflict could provide an opportunity for state and non-state actors to exploit the crisis, thereby exacerbating regional instability.

Moreover, the situation in Togo could have implications for global security, as the country risks becoming a stronghold for extremist groups. This calls for a coordinated international response that addresses not only the immediate security threats but also the underlying root causes of the crisis.