CSIS: International Security Brief 1/31/2023

 

REPORT: Rethinking Humanitarian Assistance: Climate and Crisis in the Horn of Africa

Humanitarian actors face an unprecedented scale and frequency of climate shocks, making existing challenges harder to address. A new CSIS report by Anastasia Strouboulis, Beza Tesfaye, Abigail Edwards, and Erol Yayboke analyzes the current crisis in the Horn of Africa and presents ideas on rethinking humanitarian assistance to chronic crises.

READ HERE

Dear Colleagues, Happy New Year! It's my pleasure to send you the January 2023 edition of the ISP Brief, the monthly newsletter of the CSIS International Security Program. The ISP Brief features CSIS reports and analyses written by our scholars, externally published articles, media highlights (such as video interviews and podcasts), and links to recent and upcoming virtual events.  ​​​​​​ This month, our scholars produced in-depth analyses on a variety of topics, including our results after wargaming a Chinese invasion of Taiwan; climate and crisis in the Horn of Africa; current challenges affecting the U.S. defense industrial base; analyzing the state of U.S. weapon inventories; and looking at how the U.S. can expand equipment options for Ukraine; among other pressing topics.    We also had the privilege of hosting former Secretary of Defense, Hon. Dr. Mark T. Esper for a conversation on the current situations in Ukraine, China, and Afghanistan. Additionally, the President of the Las Vegas Raiders Sandra Douglass Morgan joined the Smart Women, Smart Power speaker series for a discussion on the importance of sports teams engaging in local politics and community building. ​​​​I welcome your feedback on this newsletter and its contents at ispoutreach@csis.org. I also invite you to follow us on Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram, and Facebook for the very latest on ISP's work.  Sincerely, Dr. Seth G. Jones  Senior Vice President Harold Brown Chair Director | International Security Program CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies 1616 Rhode Island Ave, NW | Washington, DC 20036

FEATURED ​​​​ REPORT: The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan CSIS wargamed a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 24 times and found that Taiwan would endure as a democratic and independent entity in most scenarios. However, the costs were enormous. The wargame was led by Mark Cancian, Dr. Matthew Cancian, and Dr. Eric Heginbotham, who concluded that victory is not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence to avoid war. Watch a two-minute explainer video here. Watch the report launch event here. READ HERE ​​​​ EVENT: A Global Outlook with Former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper On January 25, Dr. Seth G. Jones sat down with the Honorable Dr. Mark T Esper, former U.S. secretary of defense, for a discussion on Dr. Esper’s latest book—A Sacred Oath: Memoirs of a Secretary of Defense During Extraordinary Times. They also covered the current situations in Ukraine and China, and the state of the U.S. defense industrial base. WATCH HERE ​​​​ REPORT: Empty Bins in a Wartime Environment: The Challenge to the U.S. Defense Industrial Base The U.S. defense industrial base is not prepared for the international security environment that now exists, including how to deal with China. In his latest report, Dr. Seth G. Jones argues that the United States should take several steps now to strengthen the industrial base to improve deterrence and warfighting. Watch the three-minute explainer video here. The report was highlighted in the Wall Street Journal here. READ HERE ​​​​ EVENT: A Hometown Team: A Conversation with President of the Las Vegas Raiders Sandra Douglass Morgan On January 27, president of the Las Vegas Raiders Sandra Douglass Morgan sat down with Emily Harding for a Smart Women, Smart Power conversation on the importance of sports teams engaging in local politics and community building to strengthen the foundation of their respective cities. WATCH HERE ​​​​ REPORT: Rethinking Humanitarian Assistance: Climate and Crisis in the Horn of Africa Humanitarian actors face an unprecedented scale and frequency of climate shocks, making existing challenges harder to address. A new CSIS report by Anastasia Strouboulis, Beza Tesfaye, Abigail Edwards, and Erol Yayboke analyzes the current crisis in the Horn of Africa and presents ideas on rethinking humanitarian assistance to chronic crises. READ HERE CQ: Rebuilding U.S. Inventories: Six Critical Systems Are U.S. weapons inventories getting too low because of transfers to Ukraine? Mark Cancian outlines in his latest analysis that although most inventories are acceptable, some key munitions will take many years to replace. Often, there are workarounds, but there may be a crisis brewing over artillery ammunition. READ HERE CQ: Expanding Equipment Options for Ukraine: The Case of Artillery As concerns arise about whether U.S. aid to Ukraine is sustainable, the Pentagon is increasingly substituting where inventories are running low. Mark Cancian argues that one option, a potential model for the future, is to provide the M198—an older howitzer—of which hundreds are available. READ HERE UPCOMING EVENTS Discussion on UNODC's Global Report on Trafficking in Persons 2022 Featuring Ambassador Cindy Dyer, Dr. Angela Me, Ilias Chatzis, Desirée Suo Weymont, Erol Yayboke, and Marti Flacks Wednesday, February 1, 2023 3:00 pm - 4:15 pm ET Location: CSIS and Online Submit questions here.   REGISTER HERE PUBLICATIONS Thermonuclear Twitter? by Dr. Vipin Narang and Dr. Heather Williams in The Fragile Balance of Terror ​​​​​The Strategic Importance of the Middle East and North Africa: The Strengths and Limits of MENA Oil and Gas Wealth and the Challenge of Climate Change by Dr. Anthony Cordesman Western Aid to Ukraine Is Still Not Enough by Dr. Eliot A. Cohen in The Atlantic Seize this Opportunity to Combat Chinese Misinformation by Emily Harding in The Cipher Brief U.S. Space-Based Nuclear Command and Control: A Guide by Marie Villarreal Dean Mitigating Noncooperative RPOs in Geosynchronous Orbit by Kaitlyn Johnson, Thomas G. Roberts, and Dr. Brian Weeden in Æther: A Journal of Strategic Airpower & Spacepower The Strategic Importance of the Middle East by Dr. Anthony Cordesman Deterrence, Air Defense, And Munitions Production In A New Missile Age by Dr. Tom Karako in The Hoover Institution Zelensky reminds Congress of the importance of supporting resilience by Dr. Cynthia Cook and Anna Dowd in The Hill U.S. Space Force Primer by Kari Bingen, Kaitlyn Johnson, John Dylan Bustillo, and Marie Villarreal Dean PAST EVENTS Book Event: The Fragile Balance of Terror: Deterrence in the Nuclear Age Featuring Dr. Scott Sagan, Ankit Panda, Dr. Nicholas Miller, and Dr. Heather Williams   WATCH HERE ISP PODCASTS Crisis Coordination on Christmas Featuring Captain Erin Williams, Commanding Officer, USCG Activities Far East, United States Coast Guard, and Dr. Kathleen McInnis   LISTEN HERE Afghan Women and the Fall of Kabul Featuring Kamila Sidiqi, an Afghan entrepreneur and former government official, and Dr. Kathleen McInnis   LISTEN HERE The Special Forces of Trade and Development Featuring Enoh T. Ebong, Director of the U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA), and Dr. Kathleen McInnis   LISTEN HERE How Service Can Save Us Featuring Ylva Johansson, European Commissioner for Home Affairs, and Dr. Kathleen McInnis   LISTEN HERE MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS