ACLED: Volatility & Risk Predictability Index As of 1/15/2023
Source: ACLED
Overview
The Volatility & Risk Predictability Index supports early warning and risk management by providing practical information for monitoring conflict environments. The index tracks positive deviations (increases) from baseline violence levels to assess the frequency and intensity of conflict surges. Rather than predict conflict rates far into the future with limited applicability, the index evaluates the stability and frequency of the patterns of high and low violence rates in specific areas. The watchlist notes which first-order administrative divisions (e.g. states, provinces, governorates, etc.) are at ‘extreme risk’ of violence. These regions are of greatest concern. Violence rates are calculated using the number of battle events, explosion/remote violence events, violence against civilians events, and riot events, as well as the excessive force against protesters sub-event type of the protest event type, excluding peaceful protest events and protest with intervention events.
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