Azerbaijan and Armenia Agree to Start Work on Peace Treaty (Part Two) Vasif Huseynov On September 14, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan addressed parliament in the wake of clashes at the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Pashinyan announced that he would sign a document stipulating that “Armenia will have lasting peace and security in an area of 29,800 square kilometers,” in reference to the size of the internationally recognized territories of the Republic of Armenia. According to him, “Many people will criticize us, scold us, call us traitors, they may even decide to remove us from power. … I am not interested in what will happen to me, I am interested in what will happen to Armenia. I am ready to make tough decisions for the sake of peace.” Immediately after this speech, thousands of Armenians rushed to parliament and demanded the prime minister’s resignation. Under this pressure, Pashinyan stated that he was not going to sign any documents with Azerbaijan. It is unclear whether this means Yerevan has abandoned the peace negotiations altogether. However, the fact that all major mediators (e.g., Russia, the European Union, and the United States) and international organizations (e.g., the United Nations) are urging both sides to delimitate and demarcate their borders and sign a peace treaty suggests that it will be difficult for Yerevan to resist the peace treaty initiatives for too long. The coming months will demonstrate whether the two sides can manage to overcome all hurdles on the path toward a comprehensive peace treaty, which is widely considered a necessity for achieving lasting peace and stability in the region. |
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Myanmar Faces Arakan Army Attacks in Rakhine State Jacob Zenn Since intelligence agencies began observing ties between certain, albeit possibly peripheral, Rakhine [Arakan] militant groups and Islamic State (IS), jihadism has often been the focus of analyses on the Rakhine state insurgency in Myanmar. During the current phase of the insurgency against the Myanmar junta, the Arakan Army (AA), however, is proving more operationally effective than any IS-loyal group. In early September, the AA conducted a bombing of junta solders, which killed two of them, at a government office in Maebon. And to the North along the state’s border with Bangladesh, AA continues to launch attacks against the Myanmar army, prompting the Myanmar Air Force to cross into Bangladeshi territory to target AA hideaways. Another point of separation between the AA and IS-loyal groups are their objectives. Whereas IS-loyal groups desire an Islamic state, which is at odds with both the Bangladeshi and Myanmar governments as well as other separatist Rakhine militant groups, the AA has taken a more pragmatic approach. It demands autonomy for the Rohingyas in Rakhine State, but is willing to exist in some modified form of the Federal Union of Myanmar. This not only makes it more palatable for foreign countries like Bangladesh to support the AA, but also allows the AA to show its goals are consistent with other ethnic and regional militias that oppose the Myanmar junta. Islamic State in Khurasan Province Exploits Tajik Martyrs to Recruit in Central Asia Lucas Webber On June 18, Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) militants attacked a Sikh place of worship, or gurdwara, in Kabul, killing two people, although Islamic State (IS) touted a much higher casualty total. IS formally claimed the operation through its Amaq News Agency outlet and stated the raid against the “temple for Hindu and Sikh polytheists” was intended to avenge the Prophet Muhammad following recent blasphemous comments made by Indian politicians. These comments about India drew considerable attention. However, there was another prong to the IS media strategy in revealing the attacker as “Abu Muhammad al-Tajiki,” which received much less commentary. In 2022, ISKP has ramped up its outreach efforts to target potential supporters in Tajik communities throughout Afghanistan and the broader region. IS and its supporters have accordingly expanded propaganda production in the Tajik language and have framed the Taliban as Pashtun-centric and hostile towards Afghanistan’s other ethnic groups. This involves specifically noting the Taliban’s oppression of and violence against Tajiks, while presenting ISKP as the vehicle for smashing Central Asia’s arbitrarily drawn borders, destroying the Tajik government, and forming an IS province in Transoxiana. Indian Security Agencies Target Popular Front of India Soumya Awasthi On September 22, an India-wide crackdown on the neo-radical Islamic movement, Popular Front of India (PFI), was conducted by the National Investigative Agency (NIA), Enforcement Directorate (ED), and various state police agencies. The raids led to the arrests of more than 100 top leaders of PFI from across eleven states and Union Territories. PFI leaders, including its Chairman, OMA Salam, Delhi head Parvez Ahmed, Kerala head, CP Mohammed Basheer, national secretary, VP Nazarudheen, and national council member, Professor P Koya, were all arrested. The raid on PFI began soon after some members were pressuring young women into wearing hijab to educational institutions. This occurred after the Indian state declared it mandatory to follow the uniform system strictly to ensure “religious neutrality”. Therefore, it was alleged that this hijab controversy was an orchestrated conspiracy by PFI to instigate social unrest. During the raids, the police found PFI members in possession of some weapons and homemade explosive devices and more than 200 mobile phones, 100 laptops, and other evidence like papers, vision records, enrollment applications, and bank details were seized. |
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