IEP Future Trends Newsletter 10/18/2022

 

About Us  Maps + Data  Resources

October 18, 2022 ◯ Conflict ◯ Development ◯ Social ◯ Economics ◯ Politics

IN THIS WEEK'S EDITION Here's what you need to know: Ukraine faces new Russian threat from Iran-made kamikaze drones, Lebanon accepts maritime border deal with Israel, Mexican lawmakers approve extending army's street presence until 2028, Putin proposes Turkey becoming a new supply hub for Russian gas, high floodwaters cause hundreds of deaths in Nigeria, China establishing overseas police presence in Australia and around the world.  Tweet this email  View this email on the web

SPECIAL EDITION: UKRAINE Ukraine faces new Russian threat from Iran-made kamikaze drones. The drones offer a cheap alternative to missile strikes and allow Russian forces to keep up the pressure on Ukrainian cities located far from the frontline. Saudi Arabia announces $400 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman expressed the kingdom's readiness to continue efforts of mediation, and support everything that contributes to de-escalation. Putin says no need for massive new strikes on Ukraine. President Putin has said there is “no need” for massive new strikes on Ukraine, and that Russia is not looking to destroy the country. He also said that the mobilisation of reservists would finish in two weeks and not start again.

POLITICS Lebanon president accepts maritime border deal with Israel. President Aoun said the deal represented a historic achievement in which Lebanon regained 860 square kilometres of disputed maritime territory but insisted it did not pave the way to normalisation of relations with Israel. Italy’s lower house elects pro-Putin right-winger as speaker. A pro-Russia, anti-gay politician Lorenzo Fontana was elected speaker of Italy’s lower house of parliament, a day after a nationalist lawmaker who collects fascist memorabilia became speaker of the Senate. Potential impeachment for Peruvian President Pedro Castillo. Since taking power 15 months ago, Castillo has been accused of corrupt dealings and nepotism. The President has allegedly plundered state finances for his own personal wealth. Peru's already fragile democracy has been thrown even more out of balance by the allegations.  US nears deal on tackling Sudan’s post-coup crisis. Sudan’s military and a group of political opponents are close to a deal that aims to resolve the crisis caused by last year’s coup, which would restore a civilian prime minister and guarantee the army some independence. Ban on US talent at China chip firms thwarts Xi’s key ambition. China will speed its efforts to build a legion of talent and win the battle to develop homegrown technologies, President Xi pledged at the Communist Party’s twice-a-decade congress. However, new US restrictions issued a week earlier are already undercutting these plans.​

CONFLICT Mexican lawmakers approve extending army's street presence until 2028. It is the second boost to the military's power in weeks. In early September, Congress approved giving the army control over the National Guard. The army has high public approval of around 80%. Islamist militants in Mali kill hundreds, displace thousands in eastern advance. Islamist militants have advanced further into eastern Mali, seizing territory and killing hundreds of civilians, forcing thousands to flee. Protest against Xi in China quickly censored. Rare images circulated showing a banner requesting food and freedom as a form of protest against China's President Xi. However, pictures of those protesting were quickly censored and they were arrested.  Thousands flood the streets of Tunisia to protest against the president. Tunisia's two opposition groups held parallel protests against President Kais Saied. The protestors expressed their disgruntlement against the president, whom they claim has failed to deal with the economic crisis and has no regard for the rule of law.

ECONOMICS Putin and Erdogan discuss turning Turkey into the new supply hub for gas. After the Nord Stream pipeline damage, Russia is looking to redirect gas to the EU through Turkey. The hub would be used for supplies but also to determine and regulate the price of gas, independent from politics.  Travellers to Japan expected to boost the world's third largest economy by $35 billion. Japan lifted its border restrictions, implemented due to COVID, and is expected to experience a huge economic boost through an influx of tourists.  China needs up to $17 trillion to meet climate goals. Climate change poses a big threat to China's cities. According to the World Bank, China will need around $17 trillion for additional investments in green infrastructure and to reach its net-zero goals by 2060.  IMF releases regional survey on sub-Saharan Africa. The latest regional survey by IMF reveals that 19 out of 35 low-income countries are either at high risk of debt distress or are in debt distress. 123 million people in the region face food insecurity, which translates to 12% of the population. Ethiopian banks deny foreign currency to businesses importing non-priority goods. Due to decreasing foreign currency reserves in the country, Ethiopia’s government has limited foreign currency use to importing food, medicine and medical equipment, and raw materials for manufacturing.

DEVELOPMENT High floodwaters cause hundreds of deaths, more than 1.4 million displaced in Nigeria. The nation’s worst floods in a decade have so far forced 1.4 million people out of their homes, destroyed over 70,000 hectares of farmlands and killed more than 500 people. Apple freezes plan to use China's YMTC chips amid political pressure. The move comes amid the latest round of US export controls imposed against the Chinese tech sector and is a sign that the crackdown is seriously affecting the supply chain. Major problem with fusion is solved, leading us closer to a perpetual energy source. A team of researchers have found a way to control Type-I ELM plasma instabilities. Fusion is a potential future energy source. The generation of power from this method actually mimics the sun. Ebola in Uganda: Three-week lockdown announced for two districts.  The outbreak began in early September in Mubende, about 80 kilometres from Kampala, which has remained the epicentre. The President halted all movement in and out of the districts for 21 days. Russian ships are laundering grain stolen from occupied Ukraine.  Russian exporters are mixing grain from multiple ports and vessels, obscuring the origin of commodities like wheat and barley, and allowing large volumes to be sold abroad without detection.

SOCIAL China establishing overseas police presence in Australia and around the world. The offices are affiliated with, and run by, local or municipal governments in China which have large numbers of Chinese nationals living abroad and are operational in more than 80 cities. Brain cells in dish taught to play Pong. The 800,000 brain cells living in a dish have learned to play the computer game Pong. The Melbourne team of scientists discovered how to stimulate them to perform goal-directed tasks. New Ugandan computer misuse law imposes restrictions. The new law criminalises certain internet activities, and also carries with it punitive measures for offenders. Many critics view the new law as undermining online civil liberties and retrogressive. US museums return Nigerian Benin bronzes. 31 Benin bronzes were returned to Nigeria in a movement to return looted treasures, marking huge progress toward the repatriation of stolen artifacts.  Hearing aids can now be purchased over-the-counter in the US. Experts call this development a game changer, the first step toward affordable and accessible health care for the hearing impaired. More competition, as well as increased advancement, is expected.

In last week's Future Trends, who won the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize? Ales Bialiatski Svante Pääbo Carolyn Bertozzi Alain Aspect

Analysing ecological threats, resilience & peace: The Ecological Threat Report 2022 How will rapid population growth, water risk and food insecurity be exacerbated by climate change, causing further mass migration and conflict? Join us this Wednesday, 19 October 2022 for the third annual launch of the Ecological Threat Report, produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace and featuring exclusive research from the Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll. Join us at the UN Secretariat in New York, online in Europe, online and in-person in Washington DC, and in-person in Brussels. Join a launch event →