IEP Future Trends 10/4/2022

 

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October 4, 2022 ◯ Conflict ◯ Development ◯ Social ◯ Economics ◯ Politics

IN THIS WEEK'S EDITION Here's what you need to know: Putin announces the annexation of four Ukrainian regions, Saudi Arabia names Crown Prince Salman prime minister, North Korea fires ballistic missile over Japan, the US makes a deal with the Pacific Islands to counter China’s influence, China’s yuan slides to a 14-year low after US rate hikes, Saturn’s moon Enceladus shown to have all six essential elements for life.  Tweet this email  View this email on the web

SPECIAL EDITION: UKRAINE Putin announces the annexation of four Ukrainian regions. Russia has signed treaties to annex four occupied regions of Ukraine. The regions are Luhansk, Donetsk, DPR and LPR. However, Ukraine is regaining ground in those territories. Russia opens draft centres on borders, where thousands are fleeing military call-up. Nearly 200,000 Russian citizens have fled to neighbouring Georgia, Kazakhstan and Finland most often by car, bicycle or on foot, after the government announced it would call up 300,000 reservists.  EU vows to protect energy network after sabotage of Russian gas pipeline. The EU promised a strong response to any intentional disruption of its energy infrastructure after suspected sabotage was behind gas leaks discovered this week on subsea Russian pipelines to Europe.

POLITICS Saudi Arabia names Crown Prince Salman prime minister. King Salman bin Abdulaziz has named his son and heir Prince Mohammed bin Salman as the kingdom's prime minister and his second son Prince Khalid as defense minister in a Cabinet reshuffle. UK Prime Minister Truss abandons plan to abolish top-rate tax. The abolishment of the 45% top rate of income tax has been discarded, in a humiliating U-turn after growing backlash over the mini-budget. The unfunded tax cuts in the mini-budget caused uncertainty and were criticised by the IMF. Russia's millionaires are dying in suspicious circumstances. Fifteen high-profile Russian businessmen involved in oil and gas have died in mysterious circumstances since the start of the year. Experts have attributed the deaths to the Kremlin’s demand for cash flows to fund the war. Cambodia's Khmer Rouge tribunal ends after 16 years but just three convictions, costing $330M. Cambodia’s 16-year tribunal, supported by the UN to prosecute leaders of the 1970s regime, ended after securing just three convictions at cost of more than $330 million. The regime killed 1.7 million people and the tribunal has left many questioning whether justice was served.  Brazil election goes to runoff, as Bolsonaro beats polls. With 95% of electronic votes counted, Lula was ahead with 47.6% of votes versus 43.9% for Bolsonaro, the national electoral authority reported. As neither received a majority, the race will go to a second-round vote on 30 October.

CONFLICT North Korea fires ballistic missile over Japan. North Korea has fired a suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile over part of northern Japan, prompting a warning from the Japanese government for people on the island of Hokkaido to take cover during its flight. It is the first North Korean missile launch over Japan since 2017. Burkina Faso experiences a second military coup in 2022. The military coup negotiated with the deposed leader Damiba to leave the country, in order to guarantee his security and avoid a civil war.  Turkey to reinforce military presence in northern Cyprus. Turkey will reinforce its military presence in Northern Cyprus after the US lifted defence trade restrictions on Cyprus. Colombia says 10 armed groups agree to unilateral ceasefire. At least 10 armed groups in Colombia, including former members of the FARC rebels who rejected a peace deal and the Clan del Golfo crime gang, have agreed to participate in unilateral ceasefires, the government said. Blast at Kabul education institute kills 19, injures 27 with the death toll expected to rise. Many of those living in the area are Hazara, an ethnic minority targeted in past attacks by Islamic State. Those killed included recent high school graduates, both boys and girls. Yemen’s warring sides fail to extend the UN-backed truce. Yemen’s warring sides have failed to reach an agreement to extend a nationwide cease-fire, the UN said. This endangers the longest lull in fighting since the country’s bloody civil war began eight years ago.

DEVELOPMENT CHART: Wildlife protection in Europe helps species thrive. The US makes a deal with the Pacific Islands to counter China’s influence. Fourteen nations signed a deal highlighting matters from security to climate change. The region has strategic importance as the gateway to Asia from the Pacific. New underwater camera prototype is powered by sound. The team developed a battery-free, wireless underwater camera. It’s about 100,000 times more energy-efficient than other undersea cameras. Methane emissions from natural gas flaring underestimated fivefold, a US study calculates. The study indicates flaring, the process of burning off methane from gas and oil wells, is responsible for between 4 and 10% of the US oil and gas industry's total methane emissions. A sprawling grid larger than the UK is being replaced by solar. The remote region in Western Australia consists of large farms and is one of the largest power networks in the world. After a number of natural disasters, they are pulling down their poles and installing solar panels with diesel backup.

ECONOMICS China’s yuan slides to a 14-year low after US rate hikes. A weaker yuan helps Chinese exporters by making their goods cheaper abroad, but it encourages capital to flow out of the economy. That raises costs for Chinese borrowers and sets back the ruling Communist Party’s efforts to boost weak economic growth. Dutch inflation reaches its highest level in decades. High energy prices have led to inflation in the Netherlands reaching 17%. The Dutch government announced that it would spend 18 billion euros to help people pay their bills.  China’s GDP growth lags behind the rest of developing East Asia. The World Bank has cut its economic growth forecast for China this year to 2.8%. At the same time, it revised upwards its 2022 expectations for the rest of developing East Asia and the Pacific, from 4.8% to 5.3%. India's Adani Group plans to invest over $100B in next decade. It will invest over $100 billion of capital in the next decade and has earmarked 70% of this investment for the energy transition space. It claims it is the world's largest solar player. Global fossil fuel subsidies rocketed to almost $700B in 2021. OECD and IEA data shows that 51 countries worldwide spent a combined $697.2 billion on subsidies for fossil fuels in 2021, up from $362.4 billion in 2020.

SOCIAL Saturn’s moon Enceladus shown to have all six essential elements for life. Re-analysis of icy rock grains from a ring of Saturn, fed by ice plumes from its moon Enceladus, has revealed the presence of phosphorus, the only key essential element for life that had not already been found. Million-year-old skull found in China fills the human evolutionary gap. Chinese archaeologists have discovered an almost complete human skull from 1 million years ago in the central province of Hubei. Archaeologists say the find completes a missing gap on the origin of Homo erectus in East Asia. One in eight bird species under threat of extinction. The expansion and intensification of agriculture, logging, invasive species, and exploitation of natural resources have endangered nearly half of the planet’s bird species. Philippine government to shut 175 offshore gambling firms, deport 40,000 Chinese workers. The Philippines will shut 175 offshore gambling firms, deporting 40,000 Chinese workers. The sector expanded quickly in 2006 because of the lax gambling laws in the Philippines. Scientists have calculated how many ants are on earth. A new estimate for the total number of ants on Earth comes to a whopping total of nearly 20 quadrillion individuals or 20,000,000,000,000,000. This is 2,500,000 ants for every human.

In last week's Future Trends, which Dutch city is set to ban meat advertisements? Amsterdam Rotterdam Arnhem Haarlem

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