Intelligence Fusion Newsletter 10/28/2022

Friday 28th October 2022

Hi M Nuri,

Here's your weekly rundown of the global security landscape, highlighting key incidents that have taken place in each region in the last seven days;

Intelligence Insight Weekly - What's Happening in Asia?

MIDDLE EAST & ASIA

Iran

On the evening of the 26th October 2022, at least 15 people were killed and 40 others injured in an armed attack carried out by three people at the Shahcheragh Shrine in Shiraz. Reports suggest the gunmen targeted the servant and guard of the shrine, the women’s section and also indiscriminately fired on those present in the shrine’s compound.

The Islamic State has reportedly claimed responsibility for the attack through its affiliated Amaq news agency, stating that one of their members had “targeted groups of Sunni refusal infidels inside the shrine with his machine gun, causing the death of tens of them.” So far, two suspects have been arrested and a manhunt has been launched to arrest a third person responsible for the attack. One suspect is in critical condition after being shot by police during his arrest. Iran’s supreme leader has stated he will retaliate against those threatening Iran’s security following the attack, but has said that the ongoing protests deemed as “riots”, pave the way for “terror” attacks.

This deadly attack comes at a tumultuous time for Iran after the country is witnessing a wave of insecurity and protests following Mahsa Amini’s death in police custody. The 26th October 2022 saw a revival of the protests with tens of thousands people protesting across major cities in Iran, marking 40 days since the death of Mahsa Amini.

In recent days, protests against the Iranian government have become more violent: protestors are setting fire to buildings, including government buildings and security forces have retaliated with tear gas and fired on protestors. The Iran Human Rights group have stated that at least 234 protestors, including 29 children, have been killed so far by security forces. These protests continue to pose a serious challenge to the Iranian government’s control over power and are likely to continue to do so.

AFRICA

Sudan

Thousands of protesters took part in protests in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan as pro-democracy supporters marked the first anniversary of a military coup. Protesters continue to demand the return to full civilian rule and have rejected ongoing US-mediated talks between the military and Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition. Protesters have also voiced their disapproval of reports of an amnesty for coup leaders Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamad Hamdan Dagalo. The leaders of the FFC say talks are going well and that disagreements on transitional justice and security sector reform can be resolved. However, labour unions and resistance committees that have been organising protests are not part of negotiations. Additionally, there is also anger and fear that the revolution will be reversed with several figures loyal to former President Omar Al Bashir returning to the country and given influential positions by the military junta.

The economic crises in Sudan has also worsened in the past year and this has added to tensions and desperation of the Sudanese people. Prices of basic necessities have increased following currency devaluation and subsidy reforms. Food imports have also taken a hit due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis with the country having imported some 87 percent of wheat from both countries. Land degradation, temperature increases, frequent droughts and floods, erratic rainfall, and locust invasions have exacerbated the situation further.

EUROPE

Russia

Reporting over the last 7 days has revealed that earlier this month, an open skies treaty was established between the Kaliningrad enclave's Khrabrovo Airport and Turkey, Syria and Belarus. The Kaliningrad enclave borders Poland, a NATO member and strong supporter of Ukraine. Additionally, Poland has recently completed its border wall with Belarus, improving security along this border following the state-sponsored human trafficking which began in September 2021.

While the flow of migrants has been limited significantly, human trafficking into Poland remains an issue. Belarus and Russia have been flying migrants into Moscow and Minsk with the express purpose of pushing these migrants into Poland for the purpose of using human trafficking as a means to exert pressure on Europe for Russian interests. These migrants predominantly come from Africa and the Middle East, with Turkey serving as a major thoroughfare.

Poland's border wall has meant that Russia/Belarus have had to push the migrants into Poland through Latvia and areas close to the Poland-Ukraine border, reducing the amount of migrants they can push towards Poland. However, with an open skies treaty with Russia's Kaliningrad enclave and source/throughfare countries for human trafficking, Russia and Belarus will have the potential to use Kaliningrad as a new point of entry and commence another human trafficking crisis on Poland's borders for the upcoming winter.

NORTH AMERICA

Haitian-Dominican border

On Friday 21st October 2022, Haitians blocked access routes with trucks and motorbikes on the border of the Dominican territory, predominantly in Dajabon, in protest against the unpermitted refuelling of Haitian licence plated vehicles. Reportedly, gunfire has been heard and protesters are throwing stones at individuals attempting passage into the Dominican territory. Haitians usually travel into the territory for commercial activities, which are currently banned due to the ongoing demonstrations. The Army of the Dominican Republic (ERD) is patrolling along the border to defend the territory.

Travel is limited without access to refuelling and is likely to decrease and disadvantage tradespeople within Haiti. Supply chain is likely to be hindered, and may affect the wider population of Haiti. The ongoing violence is likely to escalate as tensions thicken and trade depletes. Whilst casualties have not yet been recorded from the protests, without a revised agreement demonstrators may increase their actions, likely leading to arrests, and the risk of fatality.

Alongside the protest, on the same day the United Nations Security Council approved a sanction against armed group operations in Haiti, and within hours the Vitelhomme gang and 400 Mawozo gang declared war in Bon Repos, Croix-des-Bouquets. Adding to the country’s insecurity, the gang violence has led to a recorded 12 deaths, and several injured. Those residing in the crossfire have been forced to leave their homes, and businesses have been closed for safety. It is likely that the violence will escalate as the tensions across the region heighten, and more fatalities will occur in the coming weeks.

SOUTH AMERICA

Brazil

Political violence has been escalating across Brazil in the run up to the presidential election on Sunday 30th October.

This week, a member of the Workers’ Party (PT) escaped an assassination attempt when he returned home from a political rally in Castanhal, in the state of Pará. The victim believes he was targeted for his political beliefs and affiliation with the party of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Meanwhile, in Comendador Levy Gasparian, in the state of Rio de Janeiro, a former politician opened fire on police officers who attempted to arrest him. Two of the officers were injured when the suspect started throwing stun grenades in their direction. Jair Bolsonaro has since distanced himself from his former ally, who had earlier been arrested for threatening justices on the Supreme Court.

Although these recent incidents may have damaged Bolsonaro’s position slightly, the polls are suggesting the presidential race continues to be extremely close. Even with Lula receiving important endorsements from third- and fourth-place candidates and polling at 47%, a victory for Bolsonaro, who is currently polling at 45%, remains probable.

In this analysis of Brazil’s election, we discuss increasing polarisation and how the tensions surrounding the vote could potentially spill over leading up to and immediately following the second round runoff on 30th October.

Read the full article here

US Embassy warns of possible attack in Johannesburg, South Africa

The US Embassy in South Africa has warned of a possible terrorist attack in the greater Sandton area of Johannesburg on 29th October 2022.

The warning, released on 26th October, advised staff to avoid crowds of people and other large public gatherings in the greater Sandton area of Johannesburg during the weekend of 29-30th October 2022.

While the warning from the US contained no further information regarding the timing, method or target of the potential attack, media reporting has speculated that a gay pride event, a two week theatre show staged by Jewish comedian Nik Rabinowitz, and talks between Tigrayan and Ethiopian officials could be potential targets taking place in the specified area on that date.

American authorities are reported to have identified seven individuals believed to be part of a cell aligned to the Islamic State. While the group's capabilities in South Africa are believed to be much less sophisticated than cells elsewhere, ISIS Mozambique has threatened attacks in South Africa following the country's intervention in the insurgency in Cabo Delgado. Around 100 foreign fighters are believed to have returned to the country from ISIS camps abroad.

Thank you to community member 'M.' for sharing details of the US Embassy warning with our Discord users.

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