Intelligence Fusion | RANE Worldview Weekly Updates, 7/29/2022

 

Friday 29th July 2022

Here's your weekly rundown of the global security landscape, highlighting key incidents that have taken place in each region in the last seven days;

EUROPE Chernihiv Oblast, Ukraine Reporting indicates that on 28th July 2022, Russian forces fired at least one missile on the town of Honcharivske, Chernihiv Oblast, Ukraine. This missile was reportedly launched from Zyabrovka in the bordering Gomel Region of Belarus. Also of note is the type of weapon allegedly used - the 9K720 Iskander-M Ballistic Missile launcher (NATO designation is SS26 'Stone').   This weapon has a range of 400-620km, an easy range for the Iskander to fire given the distance between Honcharivske and Zyabrovka is just over 110km. In addition, Honcharivske is approximately 98km north-north-east of Kyiv, making Kyiv an easy target as well. Another major consideration is this launcher is capable of firing both conventional and nuclear warheads; while nuclear warheads are obviously a major concern, the conventional missiles are also capable of causing significant damage. It was the weapon system used to attack the Kramatorsk Railway Station in early April which killed 57 people and wounded over 100 more.   Between April and now, the Iskander has rarely featured in reporting. Before April, it was a regular feature in Russian attacks across Ukraine. This recent attack could therefore be a potential indication of this weapon being employed to conduct missile attacks on Kyiv from Belarus territory in the coming weeks.

MIDDLE EAST & ASIA Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea On the 25th July, the Papua New Guinea Defence Force deployed soldiers to assist the police force in Port Moresby in the face of an uptick in election-related violence. One such violent incident took place in the Northeast electorate of Port Moresby where a dozen men armed with machetes and bats attacked voters outside election counting centres. Violence was also reported elsewhere in the capital and in the country, including the killing of 18 people in Enga province last week.   The elections started at the beginning of July and are ending at the end of the month. Thus far, at least 50 election-related deaths have been reported, compared to 200 reported in the 2017 election. Violence has been motivated by grievances towards the electoral process, including the lack of update to the electoral roll since 2012, meaning hundreds of thousands have not been registered to vote since. Security forces continue to be deployed across the country, but more voters and seven new electorates in the country, compounded by funding shortfalls, means that police can only be deployed for limited periods of time. While the results have not yet come out, additional violence is likely, as this month has seen reports of candidates taking over certain polling booths and counting officials being bribed, meaning the results will be highly scrutinised.

NORTH AMERICA Canada Pope Francis has visited Canada where he has stopped at Edmonton, Quebec City and Iqaluit. During the visit, he apologised to Indigenous community over abuses in Canada’s residential school system. Last year, hundreds of unmarked graves were discovered in the grounds of former schools in British Columbia and Saskatchewan.   Canada’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission found that around 4,000 Indigenous children died from abuse or neglect in the residential school system. Many of the schools were run by the Catholic Church with estimates of between 60 and 70 percent. Between the 19th Century and the 1990s, mostly Indigenous children were forced to attend the schools after being separated from their families. Around 150,000 children attended the schools whose aim was to Christianise and assimilate them into mainstream society, which previous Canadian governments considered superior.   Many Indigenous leaders have blamed the abuse and purposeful isolation from family members as the root cause of very high levels of alcohol and drug addiction on Canadian reservations.   On Monday 25th in Maskwacis, Alberta, Pope Francis apologised for the ‘evil committed’ by Christians to a crowd of Indigenous people on the site of a former school and described Canada's use of the schools, and the Church’s cooperation with it, as ‘catastrophic’. However, some critics have pointed out that the Pope was asking forgiveness for the actions of members of the church but not the institution in its entirety. Church files on children who died have not been released.

SOUTH AMERICA Apurimac, Peru Protests by local communities targeting the mining sector may start again on the 1st August in the Department of Apurimac if the government and the company who owns the Las Bambas mine, MMG Ltd., do not meet the demands of the local communities. The communities in question are Fuerabamba, Huancuire, Chila, Choaquere, Pumamarca, and Chuicuni. The communities have been on a truce for the last month since negotiations have taken place, but are angered at actions taken by the government to alter the framework of those negotiations.   The threat of an indefinite strike, which would disruption to the production of copper at the mine along with supply chain disruptions along the highways nearby, comes at a time when mining executives of mines in Peru have reportedly lost faith in President Castillo. President Castillo had come to power on talk of raising taxes on the mining industry, and despite shifting away from such rhetoric to the pleasure of the mining sector, his inability to stem social unrest targeting mines along with delays in approving new mining projects during high copper prices, has left him unpopular. New protests targeting the sector that accounts for a significant amount of its economy would be detrimental to its economic recovery from Covid-19 and in the wake of a global cost-of-living crisis.

AFRICA DR Congo Violent protests were held in several localities of eastern DR Congo this week to demand the departure of the MONUSCO peacekeeping mission. The most violent protests occurred in Goma and Butembo. In Goma, at least three Monusco bases were looted and burned. At least six protesters were shot dead and a total of at least 127 have been wounded. In Butembo, 12 people were killed including a blue helmet and two members of the United Nations Police after protesters attacked the UN base in the Bel Air area. In a statement, MONUSCO claim that some protesters violently snatched weapons from Congolese protesters and fired at point-blank range at peacekeepers.   Protests to demand the departure of MONUSCO have been held in recent years. However, the latest round of protests are the most violent yet. Protesters view the peacekeeping mission as ineffective as the security situation continues to worsen in eastern DRC. Attacks by the ADF (Allied Democratic Forces) continue to spread and fighting between FARDC and M23 continue north of Goma despite the signing of a de-escalation pact. The latest protests were called by the youth wing of President Felix Tshisekedi’s UDPS ruling party. In June, regional leaders expressed support for Kenyan President Kenyatta’s proposal to deploy the East African Standby Force (EASF) to the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. However, some in DRC have rejected the deployment of such a force.

Reports of casualties following drone attack on Syrian church   A religious ceremony celebrating the opening of a replica of the Hagia Sophia Church was targeted by a drone attack in al-Suqaylabiyah, Syria, on 24th July. A NDF member was reportedly killed in the attack, with some reports suggesting that two people were killed and another 12 injured. It is not clear which group is responsible, but some initial reports accused Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Salafi-jihadist group, of carrying out the attack.    Thank you to our OSINT community member LeRoux for sharing breaking reports of the attack with the community.

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GEOPOLITICAL DIGEST   JULY 29, 2022     CURATED BY       The Week Ahead: Pelosi's Asia Trip Begins. US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi will leave on a tour of Asia on 29 July, with stops in Japan, Singapore, and Indonesia. She has yet to confirm whether she will visit Taiwan, a stop that could prompt diplomatic tensions between China and the United States, and even a military show of force. Beijing has announced three military exercises in the South China Sea in the coming days, including one 240 kilometers (about 150 miles) from Taiwan's Pratas Island, while a US aircraft carrier group has moved from Singapore to the South China Sea. Pelosi's decision to visit and China's potential response to it (e.g., imposing a no-fly zone over Taiwan) could change the status quo for US-China military deterrence regarding Taiwan, which could make surprise political crises like Pelosi's potential visit more common. The First Shipment Under the Russia-Ukraine Grain Deal. Grain shipments will likely commence next week, according to the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who on 29 July at the port of Chornomorsk attended the loading of the first ship set to export grain from a Ukrainian Black Sea port under the Russia-Ukraine deal struck on 22 July. Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine is now entirely ready to begin exports, and said they would start in the coming days. Initial shipments to demonstrate the deal's viability are likely, although uncertainty on key details, including those related to insurance and the exact coordinates of the shipping routes, will likely prevent the ramping-up of shipments for a few more weeks. Senegalese Legislative Elections. Senegal's main opposition coalition, Yewwi Askan Wi, on 31 July will vie for a legislative majority against President Macky Sall's ruling party. Tensions have intensified in Senegal since the country's Constitutional Council banned a list of opposition candidates from participating in the election, resulting in violence between protesters and police in mid-June that saw three people killed. This round of polling is particularly charged, as opposition groups have warned that a renewed legislative majority for the ruling party would likely lead to support for Sall's anticipated bid for an unconstitutional third term in 2025. Erdogan Meets Putin in Sochi. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on 5 August will visit Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia, part of Turkey's balancing act between its allies in the West and Russia. The pair will likely discuss the grain deal to bring Black Sea wheat back onto the world market, possible future Russian investments in Turkey and perhaps the sale of Turkish drones to Russia, which Moscow has expressed interest in after their combat performance in Syria, Libya and Ukraine against Russian or Russian-backed forces. They will also likely discuss Syria, where Russian forces still act as a blocking force to a Turkish operation in the north of the country against Kurdish militants. Erdogan did not receive greenlight for such an operation during a trilateral summit with Putin and Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in Tehran earlier this July. With no Iranian delegation at Sochi and Tehran more opposed to greater Turkish control of Syria than Russia, Erdogan might press Putin more directly to allow another Turkish operation in Syria. Please read on for our coverage of the week that was...   TABLE OF CONTENTS    • Key Developments - Analysis • Other Stories We're Tracking - Curated Content         KEY DEVELOPMENTS - ANALYSIS   Chinese Overseas Tibetan Dragnet Poses Xinjiang-Style Reputational Risks to Companies   What Happened: Chinese authorities have been attempting to lure Tibetans overseas (e.g., in Nepal or India) to return to Tibet by bribing them, inquiring about their return plans and foreign activities, and interrogating their families in Tibet, Radio Free Asia reported on 26 July. RFA quoted Tibetans who said that upon returning to Tibet, they were interrogated by the police, had their cellphones regularly inspected, and had their movement restricted around sensitive calendar dates. Why It Matters: As US-China relations deteriorate further, this Chinese dragnet targeting overseas Tibetans could escalate into more Xinjiang-style social restrictions, potentially prompting Western media outrage and sanctions. This could, in turn, trigger Western manufacturing flight from Tibet as well as from the more economically important Sichuan and Qinghai provinces, where Tibetans tend to live and work. China's forced assimilation campaigns are common in most of its ethnic minority-dominated regions, so similar reputational risks could arise in areas other than Tibet and Xinjiang.   Source: RANE Worldview   Voters Approve Tunisian Constitution, Country's Economic Future Remains Uncertain   What Happened: Tunisian referendum voters on 25 July approved a draft constitution reverting Tunisia's government to a more centralized, presidential system, rather than the parliamentary system instituted by the country's post-Arab Spring 2014 constitution. Opposition parties boycotted the referendum; the low turnout suggests many voters joined the boycott or were too indifferent to go to the polls. Why It Matters: Civil society groups fear Tunisian President Kais Saied could use his greater control over nearly every government function to undermine political and media freedoms, though he might use his stronger powers to force through reforms that could boost Tunisia's struggling economy. Saied has expressed support for reforms that would unlock a $4 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund. Reforming the economy will, however, encounter strong opposition from the powerful UGTT labor union, which rejects reductions in wages, subsidies or other benefits for Tunisians.   Source: RANE Worldview   Assessments: The CHIPS Act Won’t Reduce the US’s Strategic Reliance on the Global Semiconductor Sector   On 27 July, lawmakers in the US Senate passed the $280 billion the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) and Science Act, which subsidizes US-made semiconductor chips and boosts investments in cutting-edge science and technology initiatives. The passage of the bill in Congress comes after more than a year of legislative debate and dialogue with US business leaders on how to support the semiconductor industry in the wake of the disruptive global chip shortage and the growing competition with China. Proposals that were ultimately left out of the final version of the bill also highlight that Congress may not have enough support for more aggressive measures to slow the advancement of China’s semiconductor industry, as well as deter US (and Western) companies from investing in strategic industries in China. If signed into law by Biden (as expected), the CHIPS Act portion of the bill will increase domestic semiconductor manufacturing. But this is unlikely to significantly reduce the United States’ overall reliance on the global semiconductor industry.   Source: RANE Worldview   On Geopolitics: Will the Saudi Crown Prince Risk the Monarchy’s Mystique for Israeli Normalization?   For now, Saudi-Israeli normalization looks sure to remain slow under King Salman. But Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (commonly known as MbS) will eventually ascend to the throne once his 86-year-old father dies. And when he does, MbS’s characteristic brash approach to geopolitics could see Saudi Arabia normalize ties with Israel sooner rather than later. With such assumptions, MbS could thus readily conclude that the much-feared public blowback to Saudi-Israeli normalization may never manifest. After all, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco recently normalized their ties with Israel without major pushback, and each of those countries has either more vibrant opposition groups, weaker social contracts, and/or poorer security environments than those which exist in Saudi Arabia. In such a scenario, some Saudis might decide that the MbS-led monarchy no longer rules in their interest, and demand adjustments to the political system — either by empowering moribund institutions like the king-appointed Allegiance Council or the rubber-stamp legislative Shura Council or by inventing new institutions that might better represent them (akin to the United Arab Emirates popularly-elected though still-consultive Federal National Council).   Source: RANE Worldview   Essential Geopolitics: What You Should Know About Brazil's Presidential Election   In this episode of RANE's Essential Geopolitics podcast, Latin America analyst Carmen Colosi walks us through Brazil's upcoming October presidential election. This year, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is challenging current President Jair Bolsonaro, whose critique of Brazil's electoral institutions could contribute to ongoing misinformation campaigns and potential allegations of election fraud. Please click on the RANE Worldview link below to access the podcast.   Source: RANE Worldview         OTHER STORIES WE'RE TRACKING - CURATED CONTENT   ASIA   What to Expect From a Bolder Xi Jinping   Get Ready for a More Ambitious Chinese Foreign Policy. As China prepares for this fall’s 20th Party Congress, the odds grow stronger by the day that Chinese President Xi Jinping will emerge from the meeting having secured a third term in office. Xi's personality and political beliefs leave little room for a reconsideration, let alone a reversal, of his vision for the country. Once the Party Congress is behind him, Xi will seek to reassert Chinese power in areas of strategic priority. Disputes in the western Pacific will be at the top of his list. Tensions are already building around the Korean Peninsula, with North Korea’s next provocation only a matter of time and Washington and Seoul intent on enhancing their deterrence against Pyongyang.   Source: Foreign Affairs   For Hong Kong’s Beijing-Backed Officials, Xi’s All That   On his first full day on the job, Hong Kong’s new leader, John Lee, shared a picture of himself working at his desk with a printout of what he described as an important speech by Xi Jinping placed next to his notebook. In mainland China, such displays of devotion to the country’s powerful leader are common. But they represent a jarring shift for Hong Kong, a former British colony. While Hong Kong has long had to abide by Beijing’s decisions over major issues, the bureaucracy’s conspicuous embrace of Mr. Xi has crystallized the city’s new identity as a territory firmly in Beijing’s grip.   Source: The New York Times   The Taliban’s Neighbors Fear Afghanistan’s ‘Boiling Pot’ of Terrorism   Russia, Iran, China, Pakistan, and the Central Asian states were united in support of the Taliban’s victory over the former government last August, as they were happy to see the United States leave the region. Now that they’ve got the Taliban on their hands, few appear to know how to halt their brutality and transform them from murderous drug-dealing thieves into politicians. The resurgence of terrorism in Afghanistan is also giving its neighbors fits.   Source: Foreign Policy   EUROPE   Ukraine Could Be Turning the Tide of War Again as Russian Advances Stall   Russian advances in Ukraine have slowed almost to a standstill as newly delivered Western weapons help Ukrainian forces reclaim much of the advantage they had lost in recent months, opening a window of opportunity to turn the tide of the war in their favor again. Western officials and analysts suspect that the Russians are close to exhausting their capacity to make further territorial gains as their depleted army confronts Ukrainian forces with newly acquired capabilities.   Source: The Washington Post   Germany Is Caught in Putin’s Trap   A collective sigh of relief went through Berlin this week as Russia resumed its gas deliveries through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline after a scheduled ten-day maintenance break. But even with the immediate crisis averted, Germany remains palpably jittery: it is unclear whether it will have enough gas to get through the winter. Putin has been keen to highlight the vulnerability that Germany’s dependence on Russian gas, oil and coal has created. Alarmingly, German politicians are doing very little to hide their own panic over the matter.   Source: The Spectator   Pegasus Surveillance Plagues Democratic Europe   A year after the Pegasus scandal broke, the use of Israeli spyware by some of Europe’s democratic governments continues to raise alarms. Although the US has blacklisted Pegasus, Europe looks unlikely to support a ban. Until now, rules around spyware remain a national competency, with the EU having almost no say over national security matters. It remains unclear which countries are using spyware, on whom exactly and for what motives.   Source: Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)   AMERICAS   On US Foreign Policy, the New Boss Acts a Lot Like the Old One   The Biden administration has charted the same course as the Trump administration on strategic priorities like China, the Middle East, and US military deployments. Mr. Biden has denounced autocracies, promoted the importance of democracy and called for global cooperation on issues that include climate change and the coronavirus pandemic. But in critical areas, the Biden administration has not made substantial breaks, showing how difficult it is in Washington to chart new courses on foreign policy.   Source: The New York Times   In Argentina, a Mysterious Plane   In June, Argentina’s political and media establishment took a break from its usual preoccupation – the country’s ever worsening political and economic crisis – and focused on a different plotline, the mysterious story of a Venezuelan cargo aircraft detained at Buenos Aires’s main airport. Beyond its cinematic character, this episode raised serious issues both about the extent of Venezuela’s connection with Iran and about Argentina’s continuing vulnerabilities nearly three decades after Iran-backed terrorists bombed a Jewish community center in the Argentine capital.   Source: The Wilson Center   MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA   How the Cyberwar Between Iran and Israel Has Intensified   Iran and Israel have long engaged in mutual offensive covert cyber-actions, although neither government took credit for them in public. More than a decade ago, Iranian officials discovered the Stuxnet malware in the uranium enrichment centrifuges in one of Iran’s nuclear facilities, marking the first public evidence of the use of cyberweapons against Iran. But the alleged cyberattacks and intrusions between Iran and Israel have intensified, gaining global attention and coverage, giving a new public dimension to the ongoing covert conflict.   Source: The Washington Post   Macron Tries To Push Back Against Russia Influence in Africa   French President Emmanuel Macron is ready to step up support to African countries facing food and security concerns in a bid to stem Russia’s growing sway in the region. Macron has pledged to revamp France’s military commitment to African security even as French soldiers leave Mali, pushed out by the junta in power there in favor of forces from Russia’s Wagner mercenary group. Moscow’s penetration in the region was on show during Lavrov’s visit. President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi gave him a warm welcome in Cairo, singling out Russian-owned Rosatom’s construction of Egypt’s first nuclear plant as a prime example of bilateral cooperation.   Source: Bloomberg   GLOBAL   Biden, China’s Xi Talk as a Pelosi Trip to Taiwan Threatens to Inject New Tensions   Chinese leader Xi Jinping warned President Biden about relations with Taiwan, as a possible trip to the island by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi adds tensions to strained relations. Mr Xi urged the US to tread cautiously in its ties there and heed Beijing’s interests over what it sees as a matter of sovereignty. For Beijing, a trip by a politician as senior as Mrs. Pelosi is seen as part of a perilous backtracking by the U.S. on commitments limiting its relations with Taiwan. The Biden administration, in turn, has said it is abiding by those previous agreements, as well as a U.S. law requiring it to provide weapons for Taiwan’s defense.   Source: The Wall Street Journal   Russia Is Gaining an Indo-Pacific Foothold Through Myanmar   Earlier this month, the leader of Myanmar’s ruling military junta, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, went to Russia in order to expand his regime’s defense and energy cooperation with Moscow. The relationship is most definitely lopsided and Moscow has not been willing to publicly embrace Min Aung Hlaing’s regime just yet. During his visit last week, the general was not granted a meeting with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, and Russia downplayed the visit as a “private” one. Yet, since the coup last February, Russia has been using its military might to expand its influence in Myanmar by sponsoring the junta’s operations.   Source: The Diplomat   How Bad Will the Global Food Crisis Get?   Food commodity prices are falling, but experts say global production and hunger rates might be even worse in 2023. So far, the main concern about food has been grain supplies, especially the wheat and vegetable oils of which Ukraine is a large exporter. But some analysts are concerned about the price of rice, the cornerstone of diets across Asia. Across much of Africa, the Middle East and central Asia, consumption of staples outweighs production. It is countries in these regions that are most exposed to global price rises.   Source: Financial Times   The Resilience Myth: Fatal Flaws in the Push to Secure Chip Supply Chains   Amid US-China trade tensions and pandemic disruptions, governments in China, the US, Europe and elsewhere have determined to "onshore" semiconductor manufacturing. So-called supply chain resilience has become a central aim of policy. But such resilience is a myth. These new national efforts are backed by huge subsidies and state-backed investments. The trouble is these efforts touch only the visible end of the semiconductor supply chain. Behind chip production sits a network supplying equipment and other items encompassing hundreds of raw materials, chemicals, consumable parts, gases and metals without which the bogglingly precise process of chipmaking could not function.   Source: Nikkei Asia       © 2022 RANE Network Inc. 510 Fifth Avenue • New York, NY 10036