TRACWatch Analyst Briefing 8/3/2022

 


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Weekly Analyst Review

03 August 2022

Bottom Line Up Front

South Africa is no stranger to right-wing extremism or racist sentiment, but public protests promoting the ideology is a rare occurrence. Most often, outright right-wing behavior is usually shut down immediately by the general public and its supporters are shamed on social media and in the press.


On 19 July 2022, a group of seven white Afrikaner men who are part of Die Vryburger Beweging (The Free Citizen Movement) gathered in front of Rustenburg High School in Rustenburg, North-West Province, South Africa with Nazi and Apartheid-era flags, a town with about a 40% white population. The gathering was held to show their support for the group of students who demonstrated by showing Sieg Heil (Nazi salute) and sang a World War II German marching song called “Erika” on 24 May 2022 at Rustenburg High School. 


It is worth noting that a big cultural and linguistic divide exists between white Afrikaners and white English people in South Africa, as they do not see themselves as being part of the same group of people. This is another reason why RWE movements pop up in rural towns in South Africa that have a higher population of white Afrikaners. Additionally, it's likely that white Afrikaner support for RWE takes its inspiration from groups in the United States like #131 Crew / NSC 131 (Nationalist Socialist Club) or The Base. Their rhetoric and propaganda techniques certainly mimic American RWE groups and likewise, Die Vryburger Beweging (The Free-Citizen Movement) members also gather in small groups with a uniformed look and covered faces.


White nationalists in South Africa, quickly picked up on Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) founder, Julius Sello Malema's purported call that "white people will be the first targeted in the unrest" during the deadly riots in Tembisa Township, Kempton Park on the East Rand, Gauteng, South Africa. 


It is important to note that white nationalists, racists and fascists all see violence in South Africa as the guiding spark that will be the beginning of the collapse of society that will be rebuilt for the benefit of white people only. In October 2020, the extreme far right on Telegram were greatly disappointed when the Counter Protests in Senekal, Free State of South Africa did not dissolve into mass chaos and ignite a global race war.

Other Developments

TRAC Incident Report:

Al-Qaeda Central Command (AQC) Leader Ayman al-Zawahiri Killed In Successful US Air Strike in Wealthy Shir-Pur Neighborhood, Kabul, Afghanistan

Image: Home where Al-Qaeda Central Command (AQC) Leader Ayman al-Zawahiri  was Killed in

Wealthy Shir-Pur Neighborhood, Kabul, Afghanistan

On 01 August 2022, U.S. sources claim that they have conducted a successful targeted drone strike against al-Qaeda Central Command leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri. If true, instead of weakening the organization, it could have the opposite effect. Al-Qaeda has been growing more powerful in Central Asia under the shadow of the Taliban (IEA), and its affiliates al-Shabaab and Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) are powerhouses on the African continent. If AQC is able to choose a more charismatic leader than al-Zawahiri, the AQC brand will be reinvigorated and with their new safe haven under Taliban (IEA) protection, they have the potential to out run Islamic State in new recruitment efforts. That said, IS Central Command remains the wealthiest terrorist, not just jihadist, group in the world. 


While details are sparse at this time, it is worth noting that this drone strike comes at the same time American strikes were taking place in Kabul. According to the the former Head of National Security of Afghanistan, Rahmatullah Nabil, citing his sources, said that under the Doha agreement, the U.S. was aiding the Taliban in taking out Islamic State Khurasan (ISK) elements. However, other sources report that TTP elements were struck by drones in the Shir-Pur area of Kabul. This is an affluent area where Taliban officials often frequent, with one source stating that the targeted house was owned by an aide to Sirajuddin Haqqani. Zawahiri was rumored to be in Kabul to reunite with his family. 


While Zawahiri may have been many things, but a charismatic leader he was not. Some believe the ideal successor to be Hamza Bin Laden and that his September 2019 death did not occur.

TRAC Insight:

Islamic State SupporterCirculate Right-Wing Meme

Mirroring Racist Propaganda Promoting

Islamic State Greater Sahara

Image:  English translation of a meme disseminated by IS Supporters opposed to an al-Qaeda presence in Africa.

White Nationalists, racists, Nazis and Fascists have frequently adopted jihadist propaganda techniques and language for a few years now. But more recently, Islamic State supporters have picked up the concept of memetic warfare and have taken to disseminating many of the same sarcastic memes, mimicking the extreme right wing. This is the first time TRAC has recorded IS supporters using the exact same image as the extreme far right and it is clear that IS supporters knew where they were co-opting the image from.


It is interesting that although Islamic State disapproves of living a "Western life," it often contradicts itself by using social media and Western media practices like the use of memes to its propaganda. This is likely done in order to appeal to a younger audience that has grown up with social media. Social media has proven to be a very effective recruitment technique, because it gets a young audience, likely between the ages of 13 and 18, interested in Islamic State by using something they can all relate to. 

TRAC Incident Report:

Mapuche Criminal Group ‘Weichan Auka Mapu (WAM)’ Claims Responsibility for an Arson Attack to a Property in Trafun, Panguipulli, Los RĆ­os, Chile

Image: Scene from the attack that occurred in Trafun sector, Panguipulli, Los RĆ­os region

On 30 July 2022, two Las Vertientes farm workers were violently approached and intimidated by approximately 15 armed and hooded individuals who, after forcing them to throw themselves on the ground, proceeded destroy to 4 cabins, a Catholic chapel and various facilities by setting them on fire. The attack occurred in Trafun sector, Panguipulli, Los RĆ­os region, but no injuries were reported.  Following the attack, the Radical Mapuche Weichan Auka Mapu organization claimed the sabotage action.


During the month of July 2022, several acts of arson, shooting, and robbery against the logging and agricultural industry were carried out by the Chilean indigenous minority, the Mapuche. In order to cope with the Mapuche attacks, the Chilean government has extended the state of emergency and military deployment in La Araucania, Bio-Bio, and Los RĆ­os regions, through 14 August 2022. In response to the security measures taken by the government, Mapuche militants may attempt to block some roads, especially the smaller ones off of major highways and clashes between protestors and security forces should be expected. 

TRAC Incident Report:

Bomb Hidden in Stands Detonates During Cricket Match at Kabul International Stadium, Afghanistan

Image: Screenshot from video of spectators reacting to the blast

On 29 July 2022, a bomb hidden in stands at Kabul’s International Stadium detonated during a T20 Match of Shpageeza Cricket League between Pamir Zalmi and the Band-e-Amir Dragons. The explosion injured four spectators and the players were all evacuated to a bunker nearby, only to have the match resume shortly after the blast.


While the perpetrators are unknown at this time, Islamic State Khurasan (ISK) would most likely be behind the planting of the IED. The fact that the Taliban (IEA) was unable to guarantee the security of the spectators should be of real concern and "downplaying" that the explosion was caused by a grenade being thrown into the crowd offers zero reassurance. The most popular spectator sport in Afghanistan was certain to have a large attendance and any attack would embarrass the Taliban (IEA) the most for having subpar security in the nation's Capital.

On Our Radar:

TRAC Incident Report: 

Islamic State Central Africa (ISCA/Shabaab Cult) Beheads Two Christians, Kills Seven With Automatic Weapons and Injures More on the N1 between Nova Zambezia and Nova Vida, Macomia, Cabo Delgado Province, Mozambique

Videos:

Children of Fire Initiative (Ateshin Chuchuklari) Detachment Allegedly Responsible for the 29 July 2022 Forest Fires Near Hotels in Marmaris, Turkey

TRAC Incident Report: Nighttime Assault by Dahalo Bandits Kills 32 People When They Set Fire to Homes in Ambolotarakely Village, Ankazobe District, Analamanga Region, Central Highlands, Madagascar

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