ACLED Early Warning: Subnational Threat & Surge Trackers As of 8/1/2022

From Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) Early Warning Hub

Subnational Threat & Surge Trackers

ACLED's "Subnational Threat & Surge Trackers pinpoint local-level spikes in violence. The interactive dashboards track all first-order administrative divisions (e.g. states, provinces, governorates, etc.) that register a significant increase in political violence. The Subnational Surge Tracker flags cases in which a first-order administrative division has seen an increase of 100% or more in violent events during the most recent week of data relative to the average number of events per week over the past month. These surges capture immediate spikes, some of which may be early warning signs for further increases in violence. The Subnational Threat Tracker flags when the weekly average of violent events in a first-order administrative division has increased by 100% or more during the most recent month of data relative to the weekly average for the past year, capturing rising longer-term threats. Clicking on each first-order administrative division zooms in on a country-level map that displays the hotspot.1 Violence rates are calculated using the number of battle events, explosion/remote violence events, violence against civilians events, and riot events, as well as the excessive force against protesters sub-event type of the protest event type, excluding peaceful protest events and protest with intervention events." (ref: acleddata.com)

Interactive Dashboards