Escalating Crisis in the Sahel: A Comprehensive Analysis of Violence and Instability in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger

 The Surge in Civilian Attacks and Political Violence amidst Military Coups and Armed Offensives in the Region: Evaluating Perpetrators, Responses, and Regional Impact 

Source: ACLED

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I. Key Violence Trends in Mali & Sahel:

• 38% Uptick in Civilian-Targeted Violence:
• Occurred in Mali this year.
• Involved prominent actors: JNIM, Malian State Forces, Wagner Group, and IS Sahel.
• Several areas in northern Mali witness increased warfare.
• Specific Incidents:
• Over 60 casualties in a riverboat attack near Abakoira.
• Blockade enforcement by JNIM near Timbuktu.
• Various shelling incidents targeting Timbuktu.

II. Main Perpetrators and their Strategies:

• JNIM:
• Implemented blockades and intensified crackdowns.
• Reacted to FAMa and Wagner offensives with aggressiveness.
• Contributed majorly to civilian-targeted violence in Mali.
• Malian State Forces & Wagner Group:
• Extended operations to northern Mali.
• Adopted brutal strategies against perceived supporters of militant and rebel groups.
• Captured towns and enforced their rule, with reported extrajudicial killings.
• IS Sahel:
• Consolidated control in specific regions.
• Engaged in targeting perceived rival communities and groups.

III. Conflict Escalation & Displacement Risks:

• Civilian Risk:
• Civilians caught in crossfires amid escalating hostilities between major armed factions.
• Displacement and brutality reported, including beheadings and torture.
• Regional Instability:
• Political instability and violence escalate with successive military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
• Jihadist groups exploit political instability to expand their influence and destabilize the region.

IV. Impact on Regional Security:

• Increasing Security Deterioration:
• Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger exhibit rising violence and instability.
• Military coups and subsequent strategies contribute to regional violence escalation.
• Inter-group rivalry and hostilities lead to further instability.
• Deteriorating Situations in Neighboring Countries:
• Burkina Faso experiences civil war-like conditions with heightened death tolls.
• Niger witnesses a spike in violence during the initial month of junta rule.
• International Partnerships & Withdrawals:
• Mali sees a shift in international alliances and support.
• France and MINUSMA withdrawals contribute to the ongoing conflict and potential civil war outbreak.

V. Broader Consequences:

• Threat to Stability & Security:
• Ongoing conflicts pose severe threats to regional stability and security.
• The military regimes appear incapable of restoring peace, stability, and security in the affected regions.
• Prospects of Civil War & Prolonged Conflict:
• The intensification and spread of hostilities increase prospects of civil wars.
• Additional armed entities participating in the conflicts amplify the complexity and intensity of warfare in the region.

VI. Regional Response:

• Formation of Alliance of Sahel States (AES):
• A mutual defense pact concluded between Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
• Impact of Coups on Regional Stability:
• Military coups have intensified violence, escalating conflicts, and insecurity in the region.
• Failure in Fulfilling Promises:
• The military regimes in all affected countries are yet to fulfill their promises for improved stability and security.

VII. Conclusion:

• Prolonged Crisis:
• The Sahel region, particularly Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, is embroiled in a prolonged and escalating crisis marked by heightened violence, political instability, and civilian casualties.
• Need for Immediate Intervention:
• The escalating violence and instability necessitate urgent interventions and strategic alliances to restore peace and stability in the region.

SOURCE:

Nsaibia, H. (2023, September 21). Fact Sheet: Attacks on Civilians Spike in Mali as Security Deteriorates Across the Sahel. ACLED. https://acleddata.com/2023/09/21/fact-sheet-attacks-on-civilians-spike-in-mali-as-security-deteriorates-across-the-sahel/#1695314048339-35efa2ac-9273