Intelligence Fusion Updates 9/2/2022

Friday 2nd September 2022

Hi M Nuri,

Here's your weekly rundown of the global security landscape, highlighting key incidents that have taken place in each region in the last seven days;

EUROPE

Ukraine

Reporting indicates that on 15th August 2022, Ukrainian forces were able to carry out a successful artillery strike on the Wagner PMC - Russia's private mercenary force - headquarters in Popasna, Luhansk Oblast. The strike was made possible by a pro-Russia war correspondent posting a photo containing location information on Telegram on 8th August 2022. The accidental doxing of the Wagner Group's Headquarters also alluded to the owner of Wagner PMC and an oligarch close to President Putin - Yevgeny Prigozhin - being at that location too. Reports which followed the strike have featured allegations that Prigozhin was among those killed.

Nothing definitive has emerged to confirm/deny that Prigozhin was among those killed; he may not have even been in Popasna given the time between the photos being posted and the strike being carried out. Nonetheless, Wagner PMC forces in Ukraine appear to have been dealt a significant strike against their command and control elements, undermining the capability of these mercenaries for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Although, if Prigozhin was among those killed, this not only removes the source of funding for Wagner for the moment but also threatens the funding for another major capability for the Russian government - Prigozhin is the founder and owner of the renowned Internet Research Agency based in St Petersburg. Having said that, this creates an issue of who replaces Prigozhin if he is in fact dead.

Intelligence Insight Weekly - What's Happening in Asia?

MIDDLE EAST & ASIA

Iraq

Major street fighting took place in the centre of Baghdad this week following an announcement from Shia Cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, in which he renounced his retirement.

The street fighting began when militia members from the Saraya al-Salam militia (loyal to al-Sadr) entered the 'Green Zone' in the centre of the city, leading to clashes with Iranian-backed militia factions. Security forces moved quickly in an attempt to secure major government buildings, but protesters and armed militia fighters were seen in video on social media entering many key government buildings in the area. Fighting between pro-Iran militias and fighters loyal to al-Sadr was also reported in southern cities, particularly in Basra where offices of militia factions were targeted with small arms fire, rockets and arson attacks.

The clashes ended following a call from al-Sadr himself for his fighters to leave Baghdad. The speed with which forces loyal to al-Sadr entered Baghdad (and the speed with which they withdrew) highlight al-Sadr's continued influence in Iraqi politics and security.

NORTH AMERICA

Jackson, Mississippi

Since 31st August, the capital of Mississippi has been devoid of water supplies, forcing schools and businesses to shut their doors and affecting more than 150,000 people. The water system has been problematic for years, and on 29th August a river flooding crested around 35 feet high which led to a failure in O.B. Curtis treatment plant. The city was reportedly under state-issued boil water notice the month prior to the water crisis.

As of 1st September, there is no clear date as to when the water will pump again. President Biden has pledged aid in the form of federal funds. In the meantime, the governor has declared an emergency which involves the National Guard and volunteers distributing bottled water and resources dedicated to urgent repairs and maintenance. Hundreds of vehicles have been used by the Salvation Army to distribute water resources and water has been sought in places such as stores

SOUTH AMERICA

Chile

Last week, Chilean police arrested Héctor Llaitul, the leader of Coordinadora Arauco Malleco (CAM), one of the most prominent Mapuche rebel groups. The Mapuche are a collection of indigenous groups who aim to gain territorial control of their ancestral lands. Mapuche militants such as CAM often carry out attacks on forestry companies and other capitalist interests in the southern regions of Chile. Llaitul has been accused of stealing lumber, usurpation and an attack on authorities. He was arrested in Cañete, in the region of Bío Bío.

The arrest comes following Llaitul’s controversial interview with the news outlet Chile Today, in which he justifies sabotage as political action and confirmed that CAM “recovers wood” from forestry companies. Back in May, Llaitul called on his supporters to take up arms against the government for continuing security operations in Chile's indigenous territories.

Members of CAM responded to Llaitul’s arrest with multiple arson attacks and roadblocks in the regions of Bío Bío and La Araucanía. In fear of further unrest, transportation and logistics companies have suspended operations in southern Chile. The threat of violence is likely to continue to disrupt supply chains and travel over the coming weeks, where arson attacks have been on the rise since March. While companies in the forestry and agribusiness sectors are more exposed to attacks, Mapuche militants also frequently target tourist attractions and establishments in southern parts of the country.

AFRICA

Angola

The MPLA, in power since independence from Portugal in 1975, won the Angolan general election albeit with a reduced majority. The party has come under criticism during its time in power over persistently high levels of poverty and unemployment. Voting was marred with allegations of fraud with UNITA leader Adalberto Costa Junior citing discrepancies between the electoral commission's vote count and UNITA’s own tally. Observers from the Southern African Development Community reported there was an insufficient number of local observers. There are fears of widespread protests against the election result.

President Lourenco has promised to implement economic reforms that aim to improve living conditions for most Angolans and to diversify the country’s economy. Though high oil prices and increased European demand have boosted revenues, the increased cost of food prices have affected many Angolans. The state cut several subsidies in 2020 and 2021 but the IMF has forecast that economic growth will improve markedly this year after five years of recession.

Fighting resumes between government and Tigrayan forces in Ethiopia

On 24th August, fighting broke out once again in the Ethiopian civil war between government and rebel Tigrayan TPLF forces in southern Tigray/Amhara regions of the country, with both sides accusing the other of firing the first shots around the town of Kobo. Since then fighting has intensified, with Ethiopia's air force carrying out airstrikes, including those reported on 27th August; rebels claimed that these struck a kindergarten school and homes in Mekele, with medical workers reporting the deaths of seven people, including three children. Further airstrikes were reported in Mekele on 30th August.

The TPLF on their part have launched their own counter-offensive against the government, saying that they have captured the villages of Gugudo, Fokisa, Zobel, Mendefera, Robit, Shewotch Mariam, Tekolush, and the town of Kobo. The government claim the TPLF embedded operatives in the town centre and that in order to avoid mass civilian casualties, government security forces have withdrawn to take up defensive positions on the outskirts of Kobo. A blockade of the Tigray region has led to a humanitarian crisis in the region, where open-source reporting remains limited.

Thank you to community members 'M.' and 'LeRoux' for their contributions around the airstrikes and counter-offensive reported this week.

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