GIS Intelligence Weekly Update 5/2/2022

 

Why do nations start wars? Historically, it was usually about acquiring a neighbor’s land and regional strength. These motives were evident, for example, in three so-called Silesian Wars between the Austrian Empire and the Kingdom of Prussia in the mid-18th century. Prussian King Frederick II led a coalition of countries seeking territorial gain at Austria’s expense. One does not want too much bloodletting and destruction when the immediate objective is enrichment through land-grab. Occupied territories were heavily taxed, but in these “cabinet wars,” led by kings and emperors, atrocities against civilian populations occurred rarely. The war over Silesia (today in southwestern Poland) foreshadowed an Austro-Prussian contest for hegemony over the German states only a century later. Unfortunately, as we have seen in Syria over the last several years and in Ukraine since the Russian invasion, the conduct of war is ruthless, and material devastation profound when the fight is primarily about changing the balance of power between the combatants and their allies. Russia launched the war out of the belief that it has been in a proxy struggle with the United States and must bring Ukraine back into the fold to recover its geopolitical strength. When a war aims to change the global balance of power and restore a nation’s glory, no measures are barred and we have a recipe for humanitarian and economic disaster. May we present...? Emmanuel Martin Emmanuel Martin is senior lecturer in economics at the Aix-Marseille University and Catholic Institute of Vendée in France. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Aix-en-Provence in France. Get to know him On Target Predictions GIS predicts Located all over the world and from various backgrounds and professions, GIS experts have unique insight into the regions and topics they analyze. This allows them to make detailed and accurate forecasts in the scenarios they present in each report. Click here to see a selection of events correctly predicted by GIS Ukraine in focus Reassessing Russia While some countries are reducing energy imports from Russia or may join security alliances, others are falling in line with the Kremlin or tacitly supporting its stance. In Reassessing Russia, GIS takes a closer look at these sea changes. Find out more Cutting edge Europe’s uncertain Indo-Pacific strategy   If Beijing supports Moscow’s war on Ukraine more forcefully, Europe’s strategic choices in Asia will only become more difficult.   Show the whole Report The age-old nature of the ‘new Cold War’ Russia's war in Ukraine signals an ideological challenge to the Western order of the kind thought buried with the Soviet Union. The new challengers, led by China, will intensify confrontation if an accommodation is not found. Find out more The future of the West’s global security strategy Recent events will trigger a strategic alignment that views both Russia and China as parts of the same problem for the West. Its critical elements can be identified already. Explore The Sahel Trilemma Africa’s Sahel region has become another arena for competition between the European Union and Russia. The likely scenario will see spheres of influence increasingly contested by international and regional forces. Show the whole Report The EU’s response to the war in Ukraine Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted a strong and unified response from the European Union, but economic strains and energy dependence on Russia could lead to renewed divisions. Explore Join us on Social Media

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