Geopolitical Intelligence Service Newsletter May 9, 2022

 

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GIS Rewind: Geopolitics catches up with Europe

Some 10 months ago, GIS Founder and Chairman Prince Michael of Liechtensteiin was already warning that Europe was woefully unprepared for a major war that could break out around the world in any number of hot spots, including Ukraine. At the same time, he predicted that Russia and China could align more closely, as they did by signing a cooperation agreement earlier this year.

“Russia is justifiably concerned about Western attempts to influence its internal matters. It is also intent on protecting its long borders,” he wrote. “However, the American administration’s harsh attitude as well as European indecisiveness and the resulting sanctions could push Russia, the world’s largest country and a nuclear superpower, to increasingly align with China.”

Europe, he said, was in a weak position and needs to “stop burying its head in the sand and congratulating itself on the success of its assumed soft power and outstanding regulatory frameworks. Geopolitics will catch up with Europe.”

He advised that the continent needed to be more decisive, perhaps following the example of Switzerland, which had just beefed up its defense with the purchase of 36 U.S. F-35 fighter jets. “Switzerland is still aware that the world is a dangerous place and that peace can only be preserved with credible deterrence,” he wrote.

If Europe had done the same, one wonders if Moscow would have been so bold as to attack Ukraine. Instead, as Prince Michael wrote, “Europe persists in its blissful ignorance.”

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Alberto Mingardi

Alberto Mingardi

Alberto Mingardi is director general of the Italian free-market think tank, Istituto Bruno Leoni. He is also associate professor of the history of political thought at IULM University in Milan and a Presidential Scholar in political theory at Chapman University. He holds a PhD in political science from the University of Pavia.

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